Flood potential with uncertainty quantification (UQ)

Classes on the forecast maximum unit streamflow, 90th percentile of the 50 member ensemble, in m3/s per km2: under 0.5 light gray no signal, 0.5 to 1 Low, 1 to 2 Moderate where flood potential starts, 2 to 4 High, 4 and up Very high. The color bar and the Low to High naming follow the FLASH system scheme. Confidence is the fraction of members exceeding 0.5: HIGH 50 percent or more, MED 20 to 50, LOW 5 to 20, dashed border.

Hazard only polygons, morphological clustering of cells with ensemble signal, small interior holes are filled. The INE 2018 communities, flood prone settlements, municipal vulnerability and CONRED report layers are toggled for analysis: zoom into a zone and assess what lies inside.

Per cell level from an IBF style matrix: likelihood equals the fraction of members above 0.5, in three tiers, and impact equals the potential class plus one where municipal vulnerability is high or a flood prone settlement with hazard Alta or Muy Alta is near, minus one where no community is near.

prob \ imp	1	2	3	4
LOW	1	1	2	3
MED	1	2	3	4
HIGH	2	3	4	4

Resulting levels: 1 Low, 2 Moderate, 3 High, 4 Very high.

TITO hindcast with EF5 CREST at 90 m and 900 m. Rainfall from the StormLab ensemble, 10 QPE members by 5 realizations, and the 10 member STREAM-Sat QPE used as verification. Thematic layers: INE 2018 census, flood affected populated places, climate change vulnerability index and INFORM components, IGN boundaries, MAGA land use, official CONRED reports for the event. The EF5 layer shows the maximum unit streamflow at the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles of the ensemble, with the EF5 and FLASH color scale; the same fields are delivered as GeoTIFF in the geotiff folder for GIS use. This product shows flood potential. Issuing official warnings remains the mandate of the national institutions.