Flood potential warnings with uncertainty quantification
Union of the Comoros: Grande Comore, Anjouan and Moheli
Hindcasts of 26 to 28 April 2024 (72 cycles) and 4 to 7 May 2025 (96 cycles)EF5 at 30 m, 50 StormLab members and 10 STREAM-Sat analysis members per cycleHomeFrançais
Flood potential zones from the ensemble maximum unit streamflow of EF5 (m3/s per km2): View A shows the hazard alone, View B crosses the ensemble likelihood with the exposure of the built-up areas. Two band sets: the FLASH set (0.5, 1, 2, 4) for comparability with the Guatemala product, and a steep island set (2, 4, 6, 10) that keeps the pattern readable on the volcanic islands. Raster layers add the probability, the rainfall analysis and forecast, and the ensemble percentiles of the featured cycles.
Event
Cycle* largest flooded extent in the country ยท + percentile rasters available
View
Raster
Layers
Zoom
Basemap
Zones are ranked by class, confidence and area; a dashed border marks low confidence (5 to 20 percent of members above the first band). The zoom buttons also select the island of the rainfall chart. Cycles marked * carry the ensemble percentile rasters. The basemap needs a connection; the product layers work offline.
Rainfall, island mean
observed hourly QPE (median member) 24 h forecast rain, median p05 to p95 cumulative QPE selected cycle
mm. Bars scale to the largest hourly value of the event. The cumulative QPE starts with the antecedent rain of the model warm-up window, carried by the first cycle (29 mm on Grande Comore on 26 April 2024 00:00, 4 mm on 4 May 2025 00:00), whose hourly bar is not drawn. Times are UTC. Click on a chart to jump to that cycle.